The Maharashtra State Energy Calculator (MHSEC-2050) will allow users to compute household consumption by assessing demand for cooking, lighting and appliances, besides forecasting a larger State scenario. The MHSEC-2050, an exclusively web-enabled tool based on the Central government’s IESS-2047, is ready to launch and will allow users to build a customised energy pathway even for household consumption, officials said.
In assessing the cooking demand scenario, the MHSEC has simulated four scenarios: assuming in the first that about 14% urban and 16% rural households will be using electricity for cooking at an estimated requirement of 49 TWh (terawatt hours) by 2050. In the maximised scenario of level four, the calculator estimates 37% of rural households to be using electricity as a primary source of fuel. By then, 19% urban homes would have switched to electricity for cooking. The total demand for cooking is estimated to be 34TWh.
“We have reviewed the final draft and asked consultants to include some more data. Once done, we will finalise the MHSEC anytime now since bigger States have already put theirs in place,” said Arvind Singh, Principal Secretary, Energy, Maharashtra Government.
A household in Maharashtra on an average uses 8 to 10 LPG cylinders, 170 scm (Standard Cubic Meter) of PNG or 1,022 kWH (kilowatt hour ) of electricity annually for cooking. This combined with stove efficiencies, translates to average daily use of 1.94 kWH, officials said. “Considering the actual fuel used by the urban and rural population and the conversion efficiency of the fuel used for cooking, total energy requirement is kept at 90 TWh for the base year 2015,” a report by consultants for the calculator says.
The State’s power generation has been steadily increasing but so has its demand. The total electricity generated in the State is around 1,50,000 million units (MUs) 2017-2018, while consumption is even higher. The gap between the two is around 3,000 MUs, officials said.
Maharashtra’s per capita consumption too is higher than the national average. In 2015, 962.2 units were consumed per capita as opposed to about 652.5 units across the country. The calculator will help balance the demand and supply requirements.
For the use of lighting and appliances, including fans, refrigerators, air conditioning, the MHSEC has estimated phasing out of incandescent lamps by 2050. The penetration of LED will increase to 27% by 2025 and to 90% by 2050.
“In the maximised scenario we are assuming energy efficiency ratios of air conditioners will improve due to advanced technologies, which are likely to improve efficiency of fans as well in the long run,” the consultants’ report notes.
The MHSEC-2015 will be an open-source tool and enable energy sector planning for stakeholders, including the government, energy companies and even individual users.
The tool will cover most areas which impact energy demand and supply in the State. It will allow policymakers to visualise choices in energy trade-offs, throw it open to the general public, help align public opinion with State policy, and assist in long-term planning.